Modes and methods of production in France in 2040
What consequences will they have on occupational safety and health?
On the initiative of INRS, in association with six partners (Anact, Anses, Aract Rhône-Alpes, Dares, Direction des risques professionnels of Cnam-TS, France Stratégie) and with methodological support from Futuribles, this "foresight" or "futures" approach aimed to describe the possible futures for production in France at the horizon of 2040.
For this purpose, a method in three main parts was chosen:
- based on interviews with about thirty experts in occupational risk prevention (from institutions or from industry), a retrospective analysis was conducted of the changes that have occurred in France over the last 25 years, with the emphasis being put on the developments likely to have the biggest impact on occupational safety and health; in parallel,a project group, made up of representatives of the partner organisations, analysed the main studies devoted to the future of work, labour and employment in France (at horizons ranging from 2022 to 2054);
- on the basis of the variables identified during this first sequence, six one-day workshops were held, bringing together twelve to fifteen experts from a variety of backgrounds and disciplines (see the list at the end of this section), and aiming to outline the possible futures for production in France over the coming 25 years; the six themes addressed were as follows:
- Global value chains or self-production and local exchange & trade?
- Work or employment? What do we need to be happy?
- Are we all going to be nomadic entrepreneurs?
- The zero-risk society?
- In a robotised world, what place is left for human labour?
- Doing work as prescribed or working autonomously? Innovation that fulfils or that alienates?
- the data gathered during this workshop phase was then analysed during a two-day seminar bringing together occupational safety and health specialists who deduced possible consequences in terms of occupational risks and of prevention measures to be implemented.
The essential findings of the exercise are to be found in this document. All of the data (summaries
of the retrospective phases, of the workshops, and of the occupational safety and health aspects, and various contributions) will then be compiled into a complete document.